An IQ Test for Yankees Fans and Other Sporting Types

1. Should Joba Chamberlain move into the starting rotation?

A. Yes
B. Heck no, he's great in the 8th inning. And who else would fill that role??

If you want to know whether someone has the ability to use logic and reason, and has any remote understanding of the game of baseball, ask them the above question. If they answer A, be relieved. You are talking to a sentient human being. If they answer B, you might want to run away. They might be a wild animal, and/or they probably voted twice for George W. Bush.

Peter Abraham has a simple explanation for why A is the correct answer. Starting pitchers are more important than relief pitchers. The vast majority of relief pitchers are in that role because they failed at starting pitching at some level, or because management believed they would fail at starting pitching. Joba Chamberlain is exceedingly likely to succeed at starting pitching. Therefore...

Come on, monkeys, keep up.

When You're Right, You're Right

Johan Santana - 40.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 39/8 K/BB.
Phil Hughes - 22 IP, 9.00 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, 13/13 K/BB.

Fever Dreams

When I was confined to my bed the other day with a fever that I would estimate at 115 degrees (very scientific), I tossed about in a half-waking state, experiencing a strange assortment of fever-fueled dreams and delusions. Most of those dreams were not particularly relevant to this Web site. For example:

1) I dreamed Herve Villechaize was my sex butler. Whenever I entertained a lady in the boudoir, I rang a small bell located above the bed, and Mr. Villechaize would rush into the room in his little tuxedo, carrying a silver tray of birth control options, sex toys and refreshments. My sex butler.

2) I dreamed about the Stouffer’s chicken crepes I used to eat as a child. Those selfish fucks at Stouffer’s don’t make them anymore. Fuck your frozen paninis, Stouffer’s, they suck on wheels.

But one dream did have particular pertinence. Actually, it was more of a fugue-state vision of the future than a dream. I believe that my fever showed me the events that are about to unfold, not unlike Jacob Marley. And we should all be very afraid.

Crystal ball:

Early in spring training, the Yankees are going to trade Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and two other middling prospects to the Twins for Johan Santana. The Yankees promptly award Santana a five-year extension through 2013 worth $130 million.

Caught by an enterprising reporter for a rare public comment, Hank Steinbrenner says, “We just couldn’t pass up this opportunity to put the best pitcher in baseball in pinstripes. We had to give up a lot, but we now have a guaranteed chance to compete for a championship every year.”

Meanwhile, Brian Cashman begins quietly asking about potential job openings around the league.

The move appears to pay dividends quickly when Santana shuts down the Blue Jays and leads the Yankees to an 8-2 win in their home opener. Johan receives a standing ovation, and Hank Steinbrenner takes the uncommon step of basking in the spotlight on the back pages, saying, “This is why we went and got him. He’s a big-game pitcher, and we all knew that going in.”

The Yankees jump to a quick start out of the gate, opening with a 22-8 record and a three-game lead over the Red Sox. No one pays much attention when Johnny Damon misses a mid-week game with “a stiff back.”

Two days later, Damon is placed on the 60-day DL with “a twisted, crippled wreck of a spinal cord reminiscent of Bernie Williams in his final days.”

The Yankees try to make do with Hideki Matsui in center and Shelley Duncan in left, but the plan is quickly scrapped following an embarrassing Carl Crawford inside-the-park home run. Austin Jackson is rushed to the big leagues, where he promptly hits .143 over a two-week stretch. In July, with the Yankees lagging behind Boston, he is traded for Ken Griffey Jr., against Cashman’s strenuous objections.

After showing up on Ken Davidoff’s doorstep at 1 a.m., Hank Steinbrenner says, “Ken Griffey Jr. is one of the best players ever to put on a uniform. He immediately joins Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Bernie Williams and Deion Sanders in the proud tradition of Yankees centerfielders.”

Meanwhile, Johan Santana skips a turn in the rotation with a “tired arm.” He avoids the DL, and finishes the season at 17-8 with a 3.45 ERA. In Minnesota, Phil Hughes goes 12-10 with a 3.78 ERA.

The Yankees miss the playoffs, as a near-total lack of offensive and defensive production at first base and center field submarines the season.

Brian Cashman quietly announces his departure when his contract expires in October. He is immediately the subject of a bidding war, and becomes the new Phillies GM.

Hank and Hal Steinbrenner don’t bother hiring a new general manager, as Hank says, “Hal and I can handle that end of things. We haven’t won a title here since 2000, so it’s not like we can do any worse, right?”

The Yankees sign Richie Sexson, Jeff Kent and Pedro Martinez to long-term free-agent contracts in the 2008-2009 off-season.

From there, the vision of the future gets a little hazy. Something about a torn rotator cuff for Santana, and a 2010 Cy Young Award for Hughes…

I May Be Right; I May Be Crazy

Time for some accountability. Before the season started, I made a few predictions on how the divisional races would turn out.

I was a little bit wrong, a little bit right, and a whole lotta rock and roll. Let's see how I did, shall we?

A.L. East
More on faith than reason, I bet the Yankees would finish ahead of Red Sox and capture their 10th straight divisional crown. Other than that, I got the order right.

Most prescient statement — "[Tampa Bay's] team E.R.A. won't break 5.50." Actual team ERA - 5.53.
Most inane statement — "Erik Bedard is not an ace." Umm...A) What's an ace? B) Bedard's ERA+ was 141, and his K/9 was 10.9.

A.L. Central
Nailed this one, one through five, though the Royals gave me a late-season scare that they might slip into 4th place.

Most prescient statement — "Ozzie Guillen is an idiot who thinks his patented brand of small ball was responsible for the 2005 championship (instead of a season of good and somewhat fluky pitching). The salad days are over on the South Side."
Most inane statement — "Luckily, [the Tigers] have Jeremy Bonderman poised to have a massive year and a great bullpen."

A.L. West
Too much confidence in Rich Harden and Billy Beane led me to pick the A's over the Angels, and I completely dismissed Seattle, who ended up being decent.

Most prescient statement — "Oakland's season rests on the fragile right arm of Rich Harden."
Most inane statement — "The M's might be worse than the Royals this year."

N.L. East
Like a lot of other people, I picked the Mets. I thought some things would go wrong with the Phillies, and they did. But more went wrong with Team Randolph. I also never imagined that Washington would find a way to finish in front of Florida.

Most prescient statement — "OK, the Mets have absolutely no starting pitching. None. The decaying corpse of Tom Glavine might be good for 12 wins, but he's not an ace by any stretch of the imagination. "
Most inane statement — "Washington won't see a fourth-place finish any time in the next three years, at least."

N.L. Central
I knew the division would be awful, so that's something, I guess. Otherwise, I pretty much butchered these predictions, calling for the Brewers to win, followed by the Cardinals and then the Cubs. Stupid Chris Capuano.

Most prescient statement — "Despite the monumental heart, grit, soul, determination and whiteness of David Eckstein, the Cards just aren't very good."
Most inane statement — None. Other than the standings, I was pretty much on the money.

N.L. West
I gave the flag to the Padres, and completely wrote off the Rockies. Whoops. At least I thought the Diamondbacks would be decent.

Most prescient statement — "If Jake Peavy ever stops rubbing IcyHot on his crotch in an effort to be Roger Clemens, and actually learns how to pitch with two strikes, he can become the second best pitcher in baseball."
Most inane statement — "When contraction talks pop up again in a few years, allow me to humbly submit the Rocks for consideration. Discussion of altitude and failing curveballs and humidors has grown tiresome. Close up shop and admit their best shot wasn't good enough in Denver."

So, I only got 1 of the 6 division winners right, but I barely missed on most of the others. I'm no PECOTA, but I'll get by.

Predictions: N.L. West

If the N.L. East has been the league's most confusing division, and the Central the most pathetic, then the N.L. West has clearly been the most boring. The Padres or Giants win the division by a close-but-not-exciting margin, sneak into the playoffs, and get swept by a better team in the first round. But at last, hope emerges. Exciting young talent in San Diego, Arizona and (eventually) Los Angeles portends brighter days ahead on the West Coast. Somewhere, Tupac is smiling.

1.

If Jake Peavy ever stops rubbing IcyHot on his crotch in an effort to be Roger Clemens, and actually learns how to pitch with two strikes, he can become the second best pitcher in baseball. Even failing that, he's in the top ten at worst. The rotation behind Peavy is solid, with Chris Young, Greg Maddux, Clay Hensley and Gouty McDiabetic ("Hi, I'm Wilford Brimley, and I have diabetes.") The offense is not very good, but the additions of Marcus Giles and Kevin Kouzmanoff should help. Trevor Hoffman anchors a stable bullpen, which can afford to lose Scott Linebrink in a trade to bring in another bat.

2.

Craig Counsell can go fuck himself. And that's all I have to say about that.

3.

Jason Schmidt was a good signing, given the insanity of the current pitching market, but the rest of the off-season was a disaster that seems to be going largely unnoticed in the media. Juan "The Out-Maker" Pierre? Luis Gonzalez? They're holding up giving big league at-bats to Loney, Ethier and Kemp for these piles of human garbage? The Dodgers have the resources to make improvements during the season, which is the only reason I'm not picking the Giants to finish ahead of them.

4.

Is there anyone outside the Bay Area who thinks the Giants wouldn't have been better off cutting ties with Barry Bonds for good? The team obviously had second thoughts after initially agreeing to terms, and they should have listened to their doubt. Sure, they'd be short a power bat in about 120 games, but they would be free of the distractions, bad karma and bad defense Bonds brings to the table. How long until he claims Matt Cain raped him, and his seminal fluid contained "the clear"?

5.

When contraction talks pop up again in a few years, allow me to humbly submit the Rocks for consideration. Discussion of altitude and failing curveballs and humidors has grown tiresome. Close up shop and admit their best shot wasn't good enough in Denver. Denny Neagle could perform his hilarious patented train whistle sound at the closing ceremonies of Coors Field.

Predictions: N.L. Central

The National League Central: ugh. By far the worst division in baseball, riddled with parity and mediocrity, this division has no redeeming qualities beyond schadenfreude and waiting to see if the Brewers' young players ever put it all together. The 83-win Cardinals, who are only world champions the way George W. Bush is president, actually got worse...but I'm still not sure any other team did enough to catch them. If any team in this division wins 90 games, I'll attend the first Nickelback tour to hit town once the season's over.

1.

This is a "what-the-fuck" pick. I'll take the Brewers because they're the only team in the Central I can possibly imagine being interesting, and this will give me an excuse to root for them even though my chief fantasy rival owns Ben Sheets. If Sheets puts together a full, healthy season, I just might be buying myself some earplugs for that Nickelback show. Otherwise, forget about it. Rickie Weeks is reaching a now-or-never stage of his career. If he doesn't perform, he risks becoming a toolsy prospect who never develops into what scouts think he can be. Ryan Braun will be up by May 15. Still, fuck Bud Selig.

2.

Pujols and Carpenter and pray for an apocalypse. Despite the monumental heart, grit, soul, determination and whiteness of David Eckstein, the Cards just aren't very good. They would probably have been better served re-signing Jeff Weaver, who in the National League is just awful as opposed to historically bad, and leaving Adam Wainwright in the closer's role. Isringhausen seems done. At least Tony LaRussa and Scott Rolen are speaking to each other this year. Phew!

3.

Jim Hendry's unprecedented spending spree was probably just enough to get the Cubs to average. Still, holes abound. Outfield defense is a clear problem, as is on-base percentage. And the back end of the rotation. And the bullpen. Hmmm...maybe average is a bit of an overstatement. "Not quite as grotesque"? Let's go with that. Mainly because Derrek Lee is back and healthy and has another monster year in him.

4.

Houston lost Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens, and replaced them with Jason Jennings. I'm no sabermetrician, but I'm guessing that's a net loss for 2007. The Astros are struggling to find an identity in the post-Bagwell era, and it would help if Biggio would up and quit too, giving up his quest for 3,000 hits but freeing up at-bats for the likes of Jason Lane. And until Brad Lidge has a 40-save season, no one can ever convince me that the Pujols home run didn't destroy his psyche. At least he hasn't pulled a Donnie Moore yet.

5.

Harang and Arroyo form a solid front two in the rotation, but the back end is Nationals-esque. The bullpen is dreadful and without a clear-cut closer, at least until Todd Coffey shows he can step up. The offense will not improve over the 2006 version that allowed the Red to creep into contention. Adam Dunn is a great player, but he's not getting any better. Brandon Phillips is going to be worse. Edwin Encarnacion should improve, but not enough to withstand the gaping holes in the pitching staff. If Wayne Krivsky has a master plan, aside from "pray Homer Bailey is the answer", he needs to start enacting Phase II.

6.

Abandon hope, all ye who enter here.

Predictions: N.L. East

The slow yet sudden demise of the Braves' dynasty created a chaotic quagmire in the National League East. This division is filled with strange, confusing teams...not the least of which is the once-mighty Atlanta squad itself. With the N.L. East, more than any other division, I'm basing my predictions on hunches rather than stats. Something about this division just feels a little bit off. Plus, going by the stats, the Phillies should be the five-time defending champs by now.

1.

OK, the Mets have absolutely no starting pitching. None. The decaying corpse of Tom Glavine might be good for 12 wins, but he's not an ace by any stretch of the imagination. Pedro might be be back for the second half, but if he is, who knows what's he'll actually be? I won't even mention any of the other starters by name for fear of insulting legitimate major league starting pitchers with guilt by association. By all rights, the Phillies should win this division. However, the Mets' pitching wasn't much better last season, and they ran away with the title. Moreover, Omar Minaya has a ton of money to spend on in-season acquisitions, should any opportunities present themselves. Failing a trade, I expect Willie Randolph to make a piecemeal rotation work, move Aaron Heilman into a starting role, or pull some other rabbit from his cap. D-Dubs and Reyes will do the rest.

2.

Everybody's favorite underachievers. The Freddy Garcia trade should help. Howard and Utley should be beasts again. The starting rotation should be deep and could be spectacular if Cole Hamels hits. I like the Phillies for the Wild Card, but they'll find a way to screw up the division race. They always do.

3.

The Braves will be better, but not good enough. The LaRoche and Ramirez trades rebuilt a shaky bullpen, but Bob Wickman remains installed as closer. Which is not OK. A lot depends on the production, or lack thereof, the Braves receive from Scott Thorman and Kelly Johnson. Jeff Francouer is still a waste of humanity. I hope Mike Schmidt rapes him, screaming into his ear about the evils of strikeouts the entire time. The bottom line...not even close to enough starting pitching to seriously contend.

4.

This team's chances would be a lot better if Joe Girardi were still the manager. And if their owner, the Prince of Darkness, fell into a sinkhole. The Marlins will be feisty and cute, but not all that good. The gaping hole in centerfield isn't going away. Bullpen problems will linger on all year. Uggla will turn back into Uggla. Hanley Ramirez might regress as well. The starting pitching will be exciting, inconsistent and injury-prone.

5.

By mid-June, the Nationals are going to officially change their name to "The Woeful Nationals." There is no worse team in baseball, and some AAA teams might give the Nats a run for their money. The Nationals problems are twofold: 1) They aren't even close to recovering from the years of MLB's inept ownership of the franchise, which destroyed the farm system and the major league roster, and 2) Jim Bowden is a ree-ree. Not trading Soriano at the deadline last year bordered on criminal neglect. Washington won't see a fourth-place finish any time in the next three years, at least.

Predictions: A.L. West

The A.L. West has been a two-team division for several years now, essentially since the Mariners' 116-win campaign in 2001 brought the last gasps of semi-glory for the holdouts from the RJ-Griffey-ARod years. Now it's Oakland and the Angels, two teams with vastly differing payrolls. Happily for A's fans, the superiority of their team's GM more than compensates for their limited resources.

1.

Oakland's season rests on the fragile right arm of Rich Harden. Barry Zito is a slightly-above-average pitcher who was not worth half what the Giants paid him, but he ate up innings. After Harden and Haren, the A's rotation is shaky. Their offense isn't spectacular either, although their next wave of prospects appears ready to break through, and Dan Johnson, Mark Ellis and Eric Chavez aren't as bad as their 2006 performances indicate. I think Harden finally busts out with a 20-win season, and the A's squeak out the division title.

2.

The Angels seem to be forever waiting for their limitless supply of prospects to mature, but nothing has come of the youth wave thus far. Howie Kendrick seems like a can't miss, but so did Casey Kotchman at this time last year. The Halos finally shed themselves of the dead weight that is Darin Erstad, only to replace him with Gary Matthews Jr., perhaps the single most retarded free agent signing of the year. Beyond John Lackey, the rotation is filled with question marks, from the balky right arm and flawed gene pool of Jered Weaver to the goutish figure of Bartolo Colon. Ervin Santana is overrated based on one playoff start. Any team with this much money and this many prospects should be the class of the American League, but Bill Stoneman has yet to prove he understands how to leverage those strengths into wins.

3.

If form holds, the Rangers are due to win the World Series this year, the first after a semi-successful Buck Showalter tenure. Mark Teixeira will rebound, Hank Blalock might, Sammy Sosa won't, but the offense will still be fine. Not fine enough, though, to overcome one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball. No amount of post-Showalter karma can fix this. There's no solution in sight. Even a pre-surgery Eric Gagne can't do much with an 11-6 deficit.

4.

Pat Gillick started this mess, but Buzz Bavasi has made it significantly worse. Ichiro is past his prime, and was overrated at his best. The Sexson-Beltre combo is still killing this team, years after one of the dumbest free-agent tandem signings in history. A 3-4-5 combo of Jose Guillen, Raul Ibanez and Richie Sexson captain the worst lineup in the American League, and Bavasi traded the best arm on the 40-man roster for nothing in the Rafael Soriano deal. Oh, and enough with the Doc Gooden-Felix Hernandez comparisons. Gooden was never fat, and never looked as lost on the mound as Hernandez does at times. The M's might be worse than the Royals this year.

Predictions: A.L. Central

The A.L. Central is clearly the best division in baseball, which is precisely why it won't produce the 2007 Wild Card winner. The four good-not-great teams at the top of the division are going to claw each other's eyes out all year thanks to the unbalanced schedule, and I think the division champ ends up topping out at about 92 wins. Meanwhile, the Yankees and Red Sox will both win at least 97, so none of that four-teams-for-three-slots nonsense like we saw in 2005. This is the story (true story) of four quality teams who possess severe flaws, battling to see which defect will prove the least harmful.

1.

It's been well documented that the Indians run differential was vastly better than their won-loss record last year, so expect some course correction. The pitching, led by C.C. Sabathia, should be just good enough to allow the monster talents of Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez to carry the day. Despite the unappetizing prospect of Joe Borowski closing games, the bullpen features some young power arms who are better than they showed last year.

2.

The Tigers obviously aren't as good as they looked last year, despite the addition of Gary Sheffield. Most of last season was a fluke. Their offense is terrible, even with a pissed-off Sheffield. Luckily, they have Jeremy Bonderman poised to have a massive year and a great bullpen. Unluckily, Kenny Rogers is about to go back to being irrelevant, Justin Verlander's shoulder might fall off at any moment and Jim Leyland is a douche.

3.

Hmm...Ramon Ortiz and Sydney Ponson? Great plan! Sorry, Twins fans, you've got a likable team, but the Liriano injury combined with a weak off-season killed your playoff chances for 2007. Time to cross your fingers that Liriano is ready to go next spring. Oh, and Johan — pinstripes are slimming. ::sexy wink::

4.

Scott Podsednik (2006 OBP: .330) and Darin Erstad (2005 OBP: .325) at the top of the order? Great plan! The Garcia and McCarthy trades made absolutely no sense, unless one or both represented severe clubhouse problems. Mark Buerhle is dunzo, and whining about a contract extension to boot. Ozzie Guillen is an idiot who thinks his patented brand of small ball was responsible for the 2005 championship (instead of a season of good and somewhat fluky pitching). The salad days are over on the South Side.

5.

Kansas City GM Dayton Moore is in a tough spot. He was brought in to put an end to a decade-plus of losing seasons, but inherited a team with absolutely no nucleus, a small payroll and a handful of prospects who are probably a couple years away. But he can't wait for his prospects to develop naturally, because ownership and the fan base has lost all patience with losing. So Moore felt the need to make a big splash in the insanely inflated free agent market this past off-season, which led to the colossal mistake of signing Gil Meche for five years and tying up an inordinate amount of the team's payroll in one below-average starting pitcher. Moore's not dumb: he knows Meche isn't about to turn into Chris Carpenter. He thought that showing the franchise was willing to spend money would placate the fans enough to let Alex Gordon, Billy Butler et al. become what they're going to be. I can't blame Moore at all. But the Royals are going to be awful again.

Predictions: A.L. East

We'll start with the most predictable division in baseball, the American League East, which hasn't seen a new champion since 1998. Every off-season in this division is full of sound and fury, but signifies nothing. The Yankees and Red Sox escalate their arms race, and the Yankees end up winning the division every year, usually by a comfortable margin. The Blue Jays make nice little pick-ups, but never do quite enough to cross the 90-win plateau. The Orioles make awful, bone-headed moves, but still manage to stave off the Devil Rays for the coveted title of fourth place. And the D-Rays wait forever for their prospects to come of age, which will never happen. So, this year...more of the same.

1.

The Yankees have more questions than the Red Sox, especially in the rotation. And the Yankees' offense is not far enough ahead of the Sox bats to make up for the likely disaster that the back end of the rotation will become. But the Bombers will finish in first again, because that is what always happens.

2.

I do like the Red Sox for the Wild Card this year, in part because the A.L. Central teams will all beat up on one another, and in part because Boston really only needs two of their potential aces to hit big (Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka and Papelbon). The bullpen will remain a problem all year. The last time the Sox tried a closer-by-committee, it didn't work out so well. The Boston media and fan base are too impatient to let an unorthodox idea like that develop. I predict a trade for a mediocre Wickman-type closer by June 1.

3.

Yawn. This team is as boring as its country. The only reason to follow the Jays is to see if their manager tries to beat up any of their utility infielders.

4.

I hate everything about this team. The rotation, the offense, the bullpen, the manager, the bench. The Jaret Wright. Erik Bedard is not an ace. There is no reason to think they won't finish in last place, except...

5.

The Devil Rays have NO pitching. None. After Scott Kazmir (Tommy John surgery waiting to happen), their second-best starter is someone named Jamie Shields, a 25-year-old non-prospect. Tampa Bay has some of the most exciting hitters in baseball (Delmon Young, Rocco Baldelli, Carl "I want to be the most important fantasy baseball player of all time" Crawford), some of the most insane (Young, Elijah Dukes) and one of the ugliest (Jorge Cantu), but it will all go to waste because the team E.R.A. won't break 5.50.